Beaches are burning

One year ago, historic wildfires raged through Los Angeles, destroying communities and taking lives – now a new Climate Council report warns that Australian cities are increasingly at risk. Catherine Lewis reports.

Climate change is real, with scientific consensus confirming rapid warming, making the possibility of our suburban landscapes burning more probable than not.

Last year’s Los Angeles fires, which levelled 16,000 buildings, killing 31 and contributing to the deaths of 400 more, followed an unusually warm, dry winter and strong Santa Ana winds. It may seem far from home, a Hollywood mirage unlikely to repeat in Australia, but a new report, ‘When Cities Burn: Could the LA fires happen here?’ claims otherwise. The Climate Council and Emergency Leaders for Climate Action (ELCA) warns that Australian cities like Sydney – and particularly the bush-heavy Northern Beaches, circled by the Garigal and Ku-ring-gai Chase national parks, are increasingly in the firing line of catastrophic urban blazes.

Australia has already had a Black Summer. In 2019, the hottest and driest year on record, The Bureau of Meteorology confirmed overall temperatures of 1.5 degrees greater than normal range, while nationally-averaged rainfall was 40% below. A lethal pairing, flaring the worst east coast bushfire season, burning 24 million hectares, killing 450 and deleting or displacing three billion vertebrate animals; koalas now face extinction in NSW by as early as 2050.

Air quality skyrocketed to 12 times hazardous levels, with NSW Health calling it ‘some of the worst we’ve seen.’ In 2003, major fires struck Canberra. Victoria suffered a 2009 Black Saturday. Tasmania and the NSW Blue Mountains ignited in 2013. Then came 2019’s megafire temperatures that, based on predictions from Sanderson and Fisher’s ‘A Fiery Wake up Call for Climate Science,’ will be average by 2040 and ‘exceptionally cool’ by 2060.

This should be enough of a jolt for our nation’s leaders. The conversation needed in the wake of Black Summer never happened, pushed to the back burner as the pandemic took hold. Complacency is no longer an option as we stare down 50 degree temperatures in our southern capitals, droughts and elongated fire seasons. Are we in danger of an annual Black Summer? Yes, says Greg Mullins, one of Australia’s longest-serving fire commissioners, calling areas including the bush-bound Beaches, a ‘ticking time bomb.’

Greg grew up opposite the Terrey Hills Rural Fire Service (RFS) station and his earliest memories were of his father, a volunteer firefighter, ‘racing off to fires.’ “I fought my first big fire in 1971 (at the age of 13) and joined the full-time NSW Fire Brigade in 1978,” Greg tells PL. He spent 39 years as commissioner of Fire and Rescue NSW, and is now an active volunteer firefighter at Terrey Hills. Greg spent the fearsome 2019 confronting 60-metre high ‘walls of flames’ on the south coast, saying that the intensity prompted him to found the ELCA – a coalition with 22 other former fire chiefs – to catalyse all levels of government to act on climate change.

“Australia must take climate change seriously,” says Greg. “If you live in suburbia and think bushfires don’t concern you, think again. Australian capital cities share many characteristics with LA – sprawling suburbs adjoining bush, homes built close together (increasing chances of fire spread), lengthening fire seasons and worsening fire weather, wild swings from wet to dry that hinder efforts to carry out hazard reduction burning,” he adds.

‘Bushfire prone land’ covers most of the 52 suburbs on the Northern Beaches, says the RFS. The area has on average 48 bushfires a year, kindling dry sclerophyll forest and dense coastal heath. The Climate Council and ELCA ‘When Cities Burn’ report warns that ‘at least’ 6.9 million residents on city fringes are now at risk – squashing beliefs that bushfires are a rural concern. With populations in such areas up 65% on average since 2001, and up to 90% of homes constructed prior to modern bushfire standards, ember attack ignition and house-to-house fire spread is soaring.

Greg’s book, Firestorm, published in 2021, illustrates how climate pollution – from burning coal, oil and gas – is accelerating dangerous conditions, ‘all but erasing’ traditional fire seasons and turning them into a year-round threat.

“Risks have increased exponentially,” Greg explains. “Fires can be beyond the limits of modern firefighting and prevention capabilities. It’s critical that we deal with the cause of more extreme weather by drastically cutting climate pollution and preparing suburban communities for rising risks.” Fire behaviour at night is becoming more extreme, scrapping the chance to attack fires and backburn during milder night conditions, while Australia’s fire seasons grew by an additional 27 days – a 20% increase between 1979 to 2019.

Early last month, Greg fought a bushfire behind homes on Bungoona Avenue, Elanora Heights, started by lightning striking a tree. In 2024, a hazard reduction burn in Cromer broke containment lines, growing to 80 hectares and threatening homes, while lighting and suspected arson sparked fires in Allambie Heights and Belrose late last year, requiring substantial firefighting efforts, including a waterbombing aircraft. “It’s like the (fires) have suddenly gone nuclear and we’ve only got conventional weapons. Nature has overwhelmed us,” says Greg. “Governments need to maintain and increase investment in our protection by adequately funding Fire and Rescue NSW, the RFS and National Parks and Wildlife, so they can fulfil their roles of reducing hazards before fires hit and respond rapidly and effectively.” Greg is also pushing for grant programs to retrofit homes to meet current bushfire standards.

Instead, a shortfall in the State Government’s hazard reduction targets – with just 11% completed by November 2025 – is heightening risk, says NSW Nationals Leader Gurmesh Singh, warning that the state is carrying ‘unacceptably high’ fuel loads into summer. Government has also slashed the RFS operational budget by more than 15% and capital budget by 21.8%, Mr Singh says. “People can see the warning signs, communities are watching fuel loads rise and the hazard reduction work simply hasn’t been done,” says Mr Singh, referencing a recent fire that closed the Pacific Highway in Bulahdelah during which a firefighter was killed. “Poorly maintained fire trails are dangerous and make it harder for our communities to evacuate, and more challenging for crews to gain access. The fear is real,” he adds.

Warringah MP Zali Steggall introduced a Climate Change (National Framework for Adaptation) Bill 2025 to Parliament last August, aimed at ‘futureproofing’ Australia by urging independent national climate change risk assessments every five years and a fully-funded National Adaptation Plan. “We urgently need a national plan to prepare our communities for the increasing impacts of climate change,” Zali tells PL. “Bushfires, floods and heatwaves are becoming more frequent and severe, and we can’t continue to be caught unprepared.

“The Albanese Government has acknowledged the need for climate adaptation but has not committed to a national, legislated framework. The current approach is still too reactive and underfunded. This year, I will continue pushing government to adopt my legislation and commit to investing at least 0.25% of GDP in climate resilience and adaptation – a recommendation backed by experts such as the Climate Council.

“Investing in preparedness now is not just good policy, it saves lives and avoids billions in future disaster recovery costs,” she adds.

The NSW State Disaster Mitigation Plan warns that by 2060, the Northern Beaches local government area could face close to $1 billion in annual damages from extreme weather, with disasters currently costing Australia $38 billion per year – a figure set to double by 2060. “We must stop lurching from crisis to crisis. The time to invest in resilience is now,” adds Ms Steggall.

Climate Council CEO Amanda McKenzie agrees, telling PL that insurance premiums ‘have jumped 78 to 138% since 2020’ in Sydney, Melbourne and Perth bushfire zones. “Households shouldn’t keep footing the bill for worsening fires while corporations selling coal, oil and gas drive up climate pollution and rake in profits.”

Northern Beaches Council adopted a new Climate Change Policy in October, to guide how climate change risks are managed, considering options for existing development and land uses that may be impacted, and ensuring that greenhouse gas emission targets remain current.

“Such impacts can go beyond these physical hazards, creating challenges and driving changes across the community, natural environment and economy,” Mayor Sue Heins says. “We want to ensure that we’re not just reducing emissions, but importantly we’re adapting to projected climate change and building community resilience.”

As Greg Mullins says, “Fire is everybody’s responsibility.”

Stay up to date on local bush fires by checking the Hazards Near Me app, the RFS website, listening to your local radio station, or by calling the RFS Bush Fire Information Line on 1800 679 737.